NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A long list of tech IPOs captured attention in
2011, but no company has been drooled over like Facebook. And finally,
its debut looks to be imminent.
The Wall Street Journal reported
Friday that Facebook may file for an initial public offering as early
as this Wednesday. It's still not certain if Facebook will actually file
this week.
But that hasn't stopped people from speculating about how much Facebook might be worth.
Some
experts have suggested that the social network could be worth anywhere
between $75 billion and $100 billion once it starts trading. No matter
what the valuation Facebook's IPO is undeniably hot, says Max Wolff,
chief economist at GreenCrest Capital.
He expects Facebook will be
valued at $85 billion to $100 billion, and that the company will sell
about 8.5% to 10% of its available shares in the offering. Based on
those estimates, Facebook would raise between $7.2 billion and $10
billion from the sale of its stock.
But there's a lot more riding
on Facebook's paperwork than wealth creation. The social network has
become an entire ecosystem, supporting independent app makers and gaming
platforms like Zynga (ZNGA).
Facebook's
filing will have implications for companies that depend on it, as well
as the social media landscape at large. Until then, analysts are left to
speculate about Facebook's revenue streams and profitability -- and
whether it really deserves a $100 billion market value.
Michael
Pachter, a research analyst at Wedbush Securities, says the rumored
valuation range is reasonable -- though he won't cite a specific
estimate of his own.
How Facebook makes money -- and could make more: The
vast majority of Facebook's revenue comes from advertising: a
combination of search and display ads. And the sales growth is
incredibly robust.
Research firm eMarketer estimated last September that Facebook's ad revenue would more than double in 2011 to $3.8 billion and increase another 52% to $5.78 billion in 2012.
Facebook has grown by grabbing market share from Google and Yahoo.
Last year Facebook comprised 16.3% of the so-called display (i.e.
banners and other graphical ads) market, eMarketer estimates -- compared
with Yahoo's (YHOO, Fortune 500) 13.1% and Google's (GOOG, Fortune 500) 9.3%.
Martin
Pyykkonen, analyst at Wedge Partners, says Facebook is highly appealing
to advertisers because about two-thirds of its users fall into the
coveted age demographic of 18-49. He thinks Facebook's ad targeting will
become even more effective over time.
"The 'Like' button option
is a basic example of targeting," Pyykkonen wrote in a note to clients
Monday. "[It's] likely that advertisers will be able to even better
target their audiences as Facebook goes deeper with integrating apps,
games, movies, music."
Facebook's other revenue stream is its
payment system for purchases within apps and games: Facebook Credits.
Facebook keeps 30% of the revenue from those payments, and passes the
remaining 70% on to the app developer.
Facebook Credits now comprises 10% of the company's total revenue, up from 5% in early 2010, Pyykkonen estimates.
Those
estimates will soon be backed up -- or refuted -- by hard numbers from
Facebook. Once its IPO filing does finally land, it will help answer
questions about the overall social media market.
"People are
extrapolating outcomes into an environment that's hungry for missing
details," said Wolff. "It's like all the guys in the class spreading
rumors about the prettiest girl in the school."
COMMENT: I think that facebook doesn't worths 1 billion of dollars because it's just a web page and doesn't has to much of money invested on it. We have to consider that it is one oh the best web pages on the world and the most used I think. I think the right price to sell it is between $ 500,00- $ 1,000,000.
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